The O&M market is still in its infancy – but it’s growing up fast

23 March 2021, Shimeng Yang, Offshore Wind Senior Research Analyst

Offshore wind operational expenditure is expected to grow 16% annually to €10 billion by 2029. How will changing industry dynamics, such as improved economies of scale and reductions in subsidies, affect the operations and maintenance (O&M) market?

Our report Global Bottom-fixed Offshore Wind Operations and Maintenance 2021 includes analysis of how the market will evolve between now and 2029, the impact of future innovations, and the changing shape of market leadership.

Europe dominates the market – but others are catching up

Ambition is high for offshore wind. FIDs for new capacity hit an all-time high in 2020, and a record number of alliances were formed. The decade is off to a strong start, and will translate into steady growth in operational expenditure. Our forecasts show that Europe will remain the biggest O&M market this decade, reaching €5.5 billion by 2029. Meanwhile, rapidly expanding markets in Asia and the US also bring new challenges and opportunities for domestic industry and international investors.

In fact, China looks set to overtake the UK as the world’s largest single offshore wind O&M market. We expect to see 41 GW of growth throughout the 2020s, leading to a total of 49 GW capacity. That’s equivalent to €1.7 billion of opex opportunities by 2029.

How will O&M strategies adapt to a changing market landscape?

The industry is moving from highly subsidised projects, featuring smaller turbines placed nearer shore, to a new model with larger turbines, placed in father to shore – and reduced levels of subsidy.

The global offshore wind O&M market is still in its infancy and lacks experience in long-term O&M issues and failures. Just 1.8 GW of global capacity has been operating for more than 10 years. By 2029, this figure will have increased to around 20 GW, but nearly 90% of the operational fleet – 165 GW – will still be under 10 years old.

Global fleet age by capacity through 2029

This young but growing industry is set to face financial challenges, as over 34 GW plants come out of their subsidy term in the 2030s, and enlarged new built projects face low- or zero-subsidy tariffs. Furthermore, factors including curtailment, price cannibalisation and the growing complexity of turbine technologies raise operational risks, directly challenging project profitability in Europe.

However, these challenges will facilitate new technologies and innovations in asset management and O&M, creating opportunities for new service suppliers across the supply chain.

Innovations and economies of scale are driving down operating costs

Economies of scale and improved efficiency of asset management and O&M services will continue to drive down costs for asset owners.

Average opex per megawatt dropped 44% in Europe between 2012 and 2020. This was fuelled by the implementation of flexible service operation vessels, remote operation innovations (such as drones), cameras, new digital technologies and the impact of offshore wind clustering.

The recent coronavirus pandemic has tested the operational resiliency of offshore wind, forcing a re-evaluation of digital technology strategy.

Looking further forward, in addition to increased efficiencies, further innovations will reduce opex on newly built offshore wind farms and operational assets. These include machine learning and deep learning from big data, as well as robotics and autonomous systems that will partially offset labour costs.

Should operators bring maintenance in house?

The rapid growth of the offshore wind O&M service market provides a stable revenue stream for turbine manufacturers and enhances their value proposition in the turbine service market.

Large European asset owners with established in-house O&M capabilities tend to carry out their own O&M services, these in-house maintenance strategies are increasingly common for large-scale developments.

However, building in-house O&M competence is costly, especially in light of diminishing subsidies and increasing development costs (such as seabed leasing fees). Operators without in-house servicing capabilities need to balance costs and benefits when selecting their O&M strategy.

The full Global bottom-fixed offshore wind operations and maintenance (O&M) trends 2021 report provides an offshore O&M landscape and explores strategy and trends, as well as the potential of advanced technologies, specifically the key requirements and opportunities they bring for the industry.

95% expected to return to the office in some capacity as engagement, productivity and innovation suffer when workers unsatisfied at home

New data released from Steelcase today on the status quo work experience of 2020—which featured the majority of office employees working from home for most of the year—shows just how much it’s costing some businesses in terms of lost productivity, engagement and innovation. According to the report, 41% of workers who work from home frequently are dissatisfied with their work-from-home experience while only 19% are fully satisfied. Experiences and affordances at home vary greatly from worker to worker, which may explain why the data finds 95% of workers expect to return to the office in some capacity. As many companies begin to plan their future work experience, this data can be used to design the future.

The research from Steelcase includes findings collected throughout the pandemic in as many as 10 countries with more than 32,000 participants, including business leaders and real estate decision makers who represent millions of workers. The findings show when people are dissatisfied with their work-from-home experience, it results in a 14% reduction in engagement, 12% drop in productivity and 6% decline in innovation—factors that can hurt a company’s bottom line. Many workers also reported a drop in quantity, quality and consistency of work. These impacts could equate to a 5% average reduction in profits for large companies.

“The pandemic has reshaped many aspects of our lives, including where and how people want to work,” said Gale Moutrey, vice president of workplace innovation, Steelcase. “Their experiences working from home, and what they face when they return to the office, have influenced what they want and expect to see in the workplace going forward. Our data shows the majority of workers want to return to the office and their experiences during the pandemic will provide the guidance for a new, better work experience.”

Steelcase’s research uncovered several benefits and challenges among people currently working full time from home, including the following in the U.S.:

• 37% report a worsening sense of isolation
• 20% report a drop in their productivity
• 20% report a drop in their engagement
• 35% enjoyed not commuting
• 25.7% liked the ability to focus
• 20% are experiencing a worsening speed of decision making
• 16.5% have worsening work-life balance

Poor work-from-home setups are among the many factors contributing to unsatisfactory work-from-home experiences. For example, 36% of workers lack a place free from distraction and 28% do not have a physically comfortable workspace—instead toiling from their bed or couch. Nine percent of workers consistently work from their beds. All workers are not facing the same challenges, however: 75% of directors or above always or almost always work at a desk and 46% have an ergonomic chair. Among individual contributors, however, just 48% work at desks and 24% have ergonomic chairs.

“Our research shows that people want and expect to go back to the office, but they want a space that is safe, comfortable, inspiring and productive. They also want more control over where and how they work,” said Moutrey. “This data will help leaders design workspaces that are flexible, resilient and support the new ways people want to work.”

As organizations consider the future work experience for their people, more flexible policies appear to be the norm. Only 5% of organizations expect to work from home full time, up just slightly from 3% before the pandemic. Nearly a quarter will name the office as the primary work location, while the vast majority, 72%, plan to take a hybrid approach of working from both home and office with greater flexibility. Many organizations are also exploring satellite or coworking spaces closer to where workers live, which may be in response to positive reactions to a lack of commute.

Additional data from the Steelcase report will be released in the coming weeks and contain data on workers’ new needs and expectations, four major workplace shifts on the horizon and new principles for the future of office design. 

About the Research
Since the onset of the pandemic, Steelcase has committed to conducting ongoing research to help organizations understand what is really happening to their workforce and the impact it is having on their business. The Steelcase data includes findings from eight qualitative and quantitative primary research studies. This work was designed to measure the impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on work, workers and the workplace. The studies were conducted in as many as 10 countries and have included more than 32,000 participants around the world using methodologies based in the social sciences.

About Steelcase
For over 108 years, Steelcase Inc. has helped create great experiences for the world’s leading organizations, across industries. We demonstrate this through our family of brands – including Steelcase®, Coalesse®, Designtex®, Smith System®, Orangebox® and AMQ®. Together, they offer a comprehensive portfolio of architecture, furniture and technology products and services designed to unlock human promise and support social, economic, and environmental sustainability. We are globally accessible through a network of channels, including over 800 Steelcase dealer locations. Steelcase is a global, industry-leading, and publicly traded company with fiscal 2020 revenue of $3.7 billion. For more information, visit www.steelcase.com.

January 28, 2021, by Adrijana Buljan, www.offshorewind.biz

U.S. President Joe Biden signed a new Executive Order on 27 January, directing the Department of the Interior to identify steps that can be taken to double offshore wind energy production by 2030 and to pause entering into new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and in federal waters.

The Executive Order comes a week after Biden’s statement of acceptance of the Paris Agreement on 20 January, following the U.S. exiting the Paris Agreement under the previous Administration. With the new order, Biden-Harris Administration aims to achieve a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035 and put the U.S. on an irreversible path to a net-zero economy by 2050. 

“The order affirms that, in implementing – and building on – the Paris Agreement’s objectives, the United States will exercise its leadership to promote a significant increase in global ambition. It makes clear that both significant short-term global emission reductions and net zero global emissions by mid-century – or before – are required to avoid setting the world on a dangerous, potentially catastrophic, climate trajectory”, the White House states in a press release.

The federal agencies are also directed to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies and identify new opportunities in clean energy technologies and infrastructure.  The Department of Interior said that it would immediately begin a review of processes and procedures to date as it re-invests in a rigorous renewable energy program.

Commenting on the offshore wind target set by the new administration, Liz Burdock, president and CEO of the Business Network for Offshore Wind, said: “President Biden’s actions today confirm the critical role that offshore wind energy will play in creating a clean U.S. energy grid and achieving White House commitments to combat climate change. His call to double offshore wind production in U.S. federal waters sends a clear signal of support to our industry, which will generate billions in new investments”.

“Over the next few years, the offshore wind industry will dramatically scale up development of the U.S. supply chain, growing tens of thousands of new jobs in the process. The offshore wind has been on the precipice of significant growth thanks to states’ bold leadership and President Biden’s executive order further pushes the industry to new heights with a new sense of urgency”, Liz Burdock said.

The U.S. currently has two offshore wind farms up and running in its state and federal waters.

The country’s first offshore wind farm, the 30 MW Block Island Wind Farm, comprises five GE Haliade 6 MW wind turbines which have been in operationsince December 2016.

The two-turbine, 12 MW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) pilot project, the first wind farm installed in U.S. federal waters, went into operation last year. The pilot project is expected to provide the operational, weather, and environmental experience needed for a 2.6 GW development in the adjacent 112,800-hectare lease site, expected to be operational by 2026.

Peter Bryant, Clareo | 05 January 2021

Within the race for renewables, oil and gas companies are finding themselves in a proverbial rut as they reassess existing profitable models with future energy transition plans.

The nature and magnitude of this shift has set new strategic parameters for the sector.

What adds more difficulty is the question of speed in which companies pursue this conundrum. Should oil and gas companies be more aggressive in their energy transition plans?

Maximizing shareholder value is a part of a multi-pronged strategy to accelerate the energy transition. Those elements include

• Maximizing the value of the current oil and gas business by significantly reducing the cost of production
• Capital allocation efficiency to large offshore projects that needs to anticipate future demand and supply
• A transition of capital expenditure to renewables businesses at a measured pace
• A commitment to net-zero emissions from operations
• An investment in carbon-reduction technologies (e.g., carbon capture and storage)

A serious commitment to all the above is required to influence and shape the market sentiment, and ultimately share price and shareholder value.

As I mentioned in The Wall Street Journal’s article on the energy investor’s dilemma, no oil and gas company has figured out how to make money in a low-carbon energy world. In short, Exxon and BP are two sides of the same coin.

Arguably, improved performance in the core oil and gas sector may not help increase the share price and shareholder value unless it is backed by stock buybacks and high dividends, which would in turn divert capital from investing in new growth businesses.

The slowdown in oil demand combined with oversupply and the resulting low prices means that if oil continues to sit in the range of $30 to $50/bbl, the spread between returns on capital oil projects and renewable projects narrows significantly.

My belief is that a reset is imminent for oil companies and their dividend yield profiles because it will be impossible to maintain their current dividend yields at that price range; no oil company can sell enough assets and borrow enough money to do it.

Most CEOs of the major independent oil companies, especially those in Europe, have realized that a valuable energy company in 20 years is not a pure oil and gas company, and they are transitioning to do just that. But to date that transition has been very measured among the likes of BP and Shell, which includes shifting the percentage of CAPEX to renewables.

To honor this commitment, as reported in The Guardian, BP has pledged to invest $5 billion by 2030 in renewables, which is a tenfold increase, against a total downward revised 2020 CAPEX of $12 billion.

These investments are focused on investing in various parts of the new energy value chain as they build optionality. For instance, Shell, with its offtake agreement, expects completion of Phase A of the offshore (North Sea) Dogger Bank Wind Farm in Q2 2022.

Onshore construction began in 2020. It is being jointly developed by Equinor and SSE Renewables, and first power is expected for summer 2023. The total expected power generation is 3,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) per year, which is enough to power more than 825,000 Dutch households.

Meanwhile, BP has acquired UK’s largest charging company, Chargepoint, and Total has acquired two utilities since 2018 with a combined 8.5 million customers in Europe.

Oil and gas companies also need a strategic viewpoint on where value lies and new and disruptive business models.

Venture arms have traditionally provided that opportunity with varied investments in new energy startups, from smart grids to hydrogen fuel, to further bolster optionality. For instance, BP Ventures reportedly invests between $150 million to $200 million annually into startups, the majority of which are in the renewable energy space.

Although these ambitious commitments by primarily European companies are promising, they have made little movement for their languishing stock prices and market caps. (The market clearly does not see these strategies as entirely credible, in my opinion.)

Orsted, a wind company which transitioned from a coal company, has a market cap ($76 billion) greater than BP ($70 billion), despite having a fifth of the revenue. Or consider this: NextEra Energy, the biggest renewables producer in the US, has a market cap of $147 billion, which is close to Exxon’s $170 billion, despite having 10% of Exxon’s revenue.   

With these forces at play, oil companies will start allocating ever-increasing percentages of their CAPEX to renewable energy, as we have seen.

On average, oil companies allocate 10% of their CAPEX into renewable energy investments, including acquisitions of smaller utilities. Additionally, a shift in CAPEX of between 30% and 50% toward renewable energy in the next 3 to 5 years is possible, although the most aggressive companies like BP say that is 10 years out, for now.

The dilemma is significant, given the uncertainty as to where the sweet spot is that makes their transition meaningful to investors and the market without cratering their core business. BP calls this dual approach “Perform and Transform” and the market does not seem to be buying into either right now.